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Third, tomorrow's A-share market inference(C) financial and emotional factors(C) plate rotation and capital flow analysis

On December 10, 2024, the A-share market showed a remarkable feature of high opening and low going. At the opening of the morning session, affected by various factors, the three major indexes all opened sharply higher, which once brought more optimistic expectations to market participants. However, in the following trading hours, the market momentum could not be sustained, and the index gradually fluctuated downwards, and finally closed at a relatively low level. After the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, the upward trend was blocked and the upper shadow line was longer, indicating that the upper pressure was obvious. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index also experienced the process of falling back after opening higher, and the volume of transactions was enlarged to a certain extent in the process of falling, reflecting that the long and short differences in the market were intensified in the trading process.At present, the global macroeconomic environment is still complex and changeable. Although the domestic economy has generally maintained a stable recovery trend, it still faces many challenges in the context of the global economic slowdown. Although the tension of international trade has eased, uncertainty still exists, and the operating pressure of some export-oriented enterprises has not been fundamentally alleviated, which has affected the market's expectation of overall economic growth to a certain extent, and then reflected in the trend of A-share market. In addition, recent fluctuations in some macroeconomic data, such as marginal changes in manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), have also made investors more cautious in judging the economic prospects, which has become one of the deep-seated reasons for the lack of market confidence and the downward trend of the index after opening higher in the morning.The tightness of funds has a key impact on the trend of A-share market. Recently, the overall market liquidity is in a relatively stable but not loose state, and the entry speed of incremental funds is relatively slow. After opening higher in early trading, due to the lack of sufficient follow-up funds, it is difficult for the market to maintain a high increase. At the same time, investors' mood changed greatly in the process of opening higher and then going lower in the morning. When the market opened higher, the optimism of the market briefly warmed up, but with the decline of the index, pessimism gradually gained the upper hand, which further aggravated the selling pressure of the market and formed a vicious circle, making it difficult for the index to obtain effective support and rebound during the decline.

From the technical analysis point of view, today's Shanghai Composite Index has formed a K-line shape with a long shadow line, and the trading volume has been enlarged, which indicates that there is greater pressure on the top and the market divergence has intensified. If tomorrow's index fails to effectively recover today's upper shadow line, and the trading volume continues to maintain at a relatively high level, the index may seek further support. In the short term, some important moving average positions below, such as 60-day moving average and 120-day moving average, will become key support areas. If the index can stabilize near these moving averages, and with the shrinking volume, the market is expected to enter the short-term shock consolidation stage, waiting for a new direction choice. On the other hand, if the index falls below these support levels quickly, it may trigger a new round of decline, dropping to near the previous low.Second, the analysis of the reasons for high opening and low walking(C) financial and emotional factors